Anthropic reasoning and the hinge of history hypothesis
Olle Häggström (Chalmers University of Technology & University of Gothenburg)
Abstract: Among researchers and scholars working on existential risk and the long-term future of humanity, it has become increasingly common to speak of our present time as uniquely pivotal for the long-term future - a notion that has become known under the term Hinge of History (HoH). Recently, attempts have been made to formalize this concept and work out whether we really do live during the HoH. This involves not only a Bayesian analysis but also controversial ideas in anthropic reasoning. I will review and critique this work and arrive at a nuanced answer to the HoH question and its practical ramifications.
probabilitystatistics theory
Audience: researchers in the discipline
Series comments: Gothenburg statistics seminar is open to the interested public, everybody is welcome. It usually takes place in MVL14 (http://maps.chalmers.se/#05137ad7-4d34-45e2-9d14-7f970517e2b60, see specific talk).
| Organizers: | Moritz Schauer*, Ottmar Cronie* |
| *contact for this listing |