Comparing recent climate models to data
Peter Guttorp (University of Washington/Norwegian computing center)
Abstract: The latest climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) was the basis for the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The design of CMIP6 included climate runs with historical forcings, meant to be comparable to observational data. We will focus on global annual mean temperature, a common (but not particularly sensitive) measure of climate change. Using four observational products provided with uncertainty assessments, we combine these into a single series. In doing so, we estimate a smooth trend and a residual spectral density function, with attendant simultaneous confidence bands. Using the same kind of decomposition of 318 climate model runs from 58 models in the historical CMIP6 experiment, we see how well the model runs agree with the data. We also compare the warming between 1880-1899 and 1995-2014. This is joint work with Peter Craigmile of the Ohio State University.
global environmental change
Audience: researchers in the topic
Series comments: Gothenburg statistics seminar is open to the interested public, everybody is welcome. It usually takes place in MVL14 (http://maps.chalmers.se/#05137ad7-4d34-45e2-9d14-7f970517e2b60, see specific talk).
| Organizers: | Moritz Schauer*, Ottmar Cronie* |
| *contact for this listing |