BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Peter Guttorp (University of Washington/Norwegian computing center ) DTSTART:20221027T131500Z DTEND:20221027T140000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T155025Z UID:gbgstats/3 DESCRIPTION:Title: Comparing recent climate models to data\nby Peter Guttorp (University of Washington/Norwegian computing center) as part of Gothenburg statistic s seminar\n\nLecture held in MVL14.\n\nAbstract\nThe latest climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) was the basis for the sixth assessment rep ort of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The design of CMIP6 included climate runs with historical forcings\, meant to be comparable to observational data. We will focus on global annual mean temperature\, a c ommon (but not particularly sensitive) measure of climate change. Using fo ur observational products provided with uncertainty assessments\, we combi ne these into a single series. In doing so\, we estimate a smooth trend an d a residual spectral density function\, with attendant simultaneous confi dence bands. Using the same kind of decomposition of 318 climate model run s from 58 models in the historical CMIP6 experiment\, we see how well the model runs agree with the data. We also compare the warming between 1880-1 899 and 1995-2014. This is joint work with Peter Craigmile of the Ohio Sta te University.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgstats/3/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR