An Outbreak at MV (A Bayesian Investigation)
Oskar Holmstedt (Chalmers University of Technology)
Abstract: A mysterious outbreak has been detected at Matematiska vetenskaper. So far, six cases have been reported in the AMS corridor and four in the High Rise, suggesting a spreading process of unclear origin.
Transmission pathways are uncertain. Some cases can be explained by direct contact (office mates, animated blackboard debates, overly long coffee breaks), while others appear to have arisen spontaneously… or perhaps via the department environment itself, which may now be considered epidemiologically active.
No reliable records exist. Individuals vaguely recall “talking to people,” but timelines are inconsistent and memories deteriorate rapidly after lunch. To resolve this, we construct a Bayesian reconstruction of the outbreak, generating many plausible alternate realities for how events might have unfolded. Possible explanations may include:
* a single highly infectious corridor wanderer,
* multiple independent introductions, or
* a lingering environmental source (likely the coffee machine).
While the true history remains unknown, we can at least identify the most plausible versions of it in the Bayesian sense.
(Note: This work is actually about hospitals, not mathematical departments.)
Mathematics
Audience: general audience
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