BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Oskar Holmstedt (Chalmers University of Technology) DTSTART:20260610T143000Z DTEND:20260610T150000Z DTSTAMP:20260623T074559Z UID:gbgphd/56 DESCRIPTION:Title: An Outbreak at MV (A Bayesian Investigation)\nby Oskar Holmstedt (Chal mers University of Technology) as part of Gothenburg PhD seminar\n\nLectur e held in MVL14.\n\nAbstract\nA mysterious outbreak has been detected at M atematiska vetenskaper. So far\, six cases have been reported in the AMS c orridor and four in the High Rise\, suggesting a spreading process of uncl ear origin.\n\nTransmission pathways are uncertain. Some cases can be expl ained by direct contact (office mates\, animated blackboard debates\, over ly long coffee breaks)\, while others appear to have arisen spontaneously … or perhaps via the department environment itself\, which may now be co nsidered epidemiologically active.\n\nNo reliable records exist. Individua ls vaguely recall “talking to people\,” but timelines are inconsistent and memories deteriorate rapidly after lunch. To resolve this\, we constr uct a Bayesian reconstruction of the outbreak\, generating many plausible alternate realities for how events might have unfolded. Possible explanati ons may include:\n\n* a single highly infectious corridor wanderer\,\n\n* multiple independent introductions\, or\n\n* a lingering environmental sou rce (likely the coffee machine).\n\nWhile the true history remains unknown \, we can at least identify the most plausible versions of it in the Bayes ian sense.\n\n(Note: This work is actually about hospitals\, not mathemati cal departments.)\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgphd/56/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR