How Long 'Lockdowns' Are Needed to End the COVID-19 Epidemic in a Single Country, with or without Vaccinations

Abstract: The main purpose of the present lecture is to present a methodology for the estimation of the duration of the Epidemic of Covid-19 in a single country, accounting for different scenarios. Our methodology is based on a specific SEIR model, called ATVBG-SEIR model, which is explained in detail. We include vaccinations in the model which are carried out according to a vaccination plan provided on a monthly basis. The algorithm takes into account the main constraint of the health system which is the number of Intensive Care Units (ICU) intended for Covid-19 patients (they are e.g. about 1100 in Bulgaria, about 8000 in Germany, etc.). At the end, we present a web-based Lockdown Scenarios Tool, 213.191.194.141:8890/apps/ATVBG-SEIR_v9.ipynb based on the algorithm implementing the methodology. Results are demonstrating the efficiency of the tool by applying it to Covid-19 data from Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. The lecture is based on the preprint available at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3766521

bioinformaticsComputer scienceMathematics

Audience: researchers in the topic

Interdisciplinary Seminar on Biomathematics and Scientific Computing