BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Ognyan Kounchev and Georgi Simeonov (Institute of Mathematics and Informatics\, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) DTSTART:20210218T120000Z DTEND:20210218T130000Z DTSTAMP:20260423T040624Z UID:BMNI/1 DESCRIPTION:Title: How Long 'Lockdowns' Are Needed to End the COVID-19 Epidemic in a Single Coun try\, with or without Vaccinations\nby Ognyan Kounchev and Georgi Sim eonov (Institute of Mathematics and Informatics\, Bulgarian Academy of Sci ences) as part of Interdisciplinary Seminar on Biomathematics and Scientif ic Computing\n\n\nAbstract\nThe main purpose of the present lecture is to present a methodology for the estimation of the duration of the Epidemic o f Covid-19 in a single country\, accounting for different scenarios. Our m ethodology is based on a specific SEIR model\, called ATVBG-SEIR model\, w hich is explained in detail. We include vaccinations in the model which ar e carried out according to a vaccination plan provided on a monthly basis. The algorithm takes into account the main constraint of the health system which is the number of Intensive Care Units (ICU) intended for Covid-19 p atients (they are e.g. about 1100 in Bulgaria\, about 8000 in Germany\, et c.). At the end\, we present a web-based Lockdown Scenarios Tool\, http:// 213.191.194.141:8890/apps/ATVBG-SEIR_v9.ipynb based on the algorithm imple menting the methodology. Results are demonstrating the efficiency of the t ool by applying it to Covid-19 data from Austria\, Bulgaria\, Germany\, It aly\, UK and USA. \nThe lecture is based on the preprint available at http s://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3766521\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BMNI/1/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR