BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Lembris Njotto (University of Dar es Salaam) DTSTART:20241120T121500Z DTEND:20241120T130000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T161048Z UID:gbgstats/73 DESCRIPTION:Title: Spatio-temporal modeling of malaria cases in Tanzania\nby Lembris Nj otto (University of Dar es Salaam) as part of Gothenburg statistics semina r\n\nLecture held in MVL14.\n\nAbstract\nMalaria continues to pose a signi ficant global health challenge\, affecting approximately 200 million indiv iduals annually and causing an estimated 600\,000 deaths worldwide. Enviro nmental factors are key drivers of malaria transmission dynamics\, influen cing disease patterns at local and regional scales. This talk focuses on d ata from Tanzania to explore the impact of climatic factors and vector con trol interventions on malaria incidence.\n\nUsing Standardized Incidence R atio (SIR) metrics and Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling approaches\, we a nalyze regionally aggregated monthly malaria cases\, stratified into two a ge groups: children under five and individuals aged five years and above. The models incorporate a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) structure to cap ture spatial dependencies\, a second-order random walk (RW2) for temporal trends\, and independent and identically distributed (iid) random effects to account for unstructured spatial and temporal variability. Specific res ults on the influence of environmental factors\, including precipitation a nd temperature\, on malaria cases will be presented during the talk\, high lighting their role in transmission dynamics and informing targeted interv ention strategies.\n\nResults are not yet published\, please make them con fidential.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgstats/73/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR