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SUMMARY:Mathis Rost (PhD student)
DTSTART:20260409T143000Z
DTEND:20260409T150000Z
DTSTAMP:20260513T125837Z
UID:gbgphd/49
DESCRIPTION:Title: <a href="https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgphd/49/">
 Wildfire Forecasting with Point Processes</a>\nby Mathis Rost (PhD student
 ) as part of Gothenburg PhD seminar\n\nLecture held in MVL14.\n\nAbstract\
 nWe develop a spatio-temporal Hawkes model for wildfire spread in Sicily o
 ver the period 2001--2025\, with particular focus on a covariate-dependent
  branching ratio that quantifies the strength of self-excitation. The moti
 vating idea is that\, conditional on an initial fire\, subsequent ignition
 s and detections are generated through a spread mechanism whose intensity 
 varies with environmental conditions. Since satellite detections are obser
 ved only burstwise at irregular overpass times\, standard continuous-time 
 inference is not directly applicable. We therefore make use of the branchi
 ng representation of the Hawkes process and assume that each ignition can 
 be linked to its fire of origin\, yielding a practical basis for inference
  from clustered overpass data. The resulting framework allows the triggeri
 ng intensity to depend on meteorological covariates\, fire-weather indices
 \, local fuel composition\, and topography.\n
LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgphd/49/
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