BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Adélie Erard (Paris Cité University) DTSTART:20250527T143000Z DTEND:20250527T150000Z DTSTAMP:20260423T040038Z UID:gbgphd/14 DESCRIPTION:Title: Modeling fine-scale abundance dynamics: a dual frequentist and Bayesian ap proach applied to common birds\nby Adélie Erard (Paris Cité Universi ty) as part of Gothenburg PhD seminar\n\nLecture held in MVL14.\n\nAbstrac t\nUnderstanding how animal populations grow and change at a local scale i s key to studying ecosystems and supporting conservation efforts. In this study\, we explore two complementary methods to analyze data from the Fren ch Common Birds Monitoring Program (STOC).\n\nThe first method uses a stat istical model that views population changes as driven by births and deaths \, influenced by how individuals interact with each other and by environme ntal factors like climate and landscape. One major challenge is that these interactions often depend on spatial location and that the data are partl y random. To address this\, we develop new ways to estimate birth and deat h patterns and use a mathematical theory (called stabilization) that assum es interactions mostly happen at a local scale. This helps ensure that our estimates are accurate and reliable when predicting changes in bird numbe rs at specific locations.\n\nThe second method uses a Bayesian spatio-temp oral model\, estimated with a technique called INLA (Integrated Nested Lap lace Approximation). This model takes into account both space and time\, h elping us measure how environmental variables affect bird populations over time. It includes spatial patterns modeled through differential equations \, time trends using autoregressive effects\, and different responses depe nding on habitat type.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/gbgphd/14/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR