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SUMMARY:Francisco C. Santos (Instituto Superior Técnico and INESC-ID)
DTSTART:20200709T163000Z
DTEND:20200709T173000Z
DTSTAMP:20260423T003241Z
UID:MPML/10
DESCRIPTION:Title: <a href="https://researchseminars.org/talk/MPML/10/">Cl
 imate action and cooperation dynamics under uncertainty</a>\nby Francisco 
 C. Santos (Instituto Superior Técnico and INESC-ID) as part of Mathematic
 s\, Physics and Machine Learning (IST\, Lisbon)\n\n\nAbstract\nWhen attemp
 ting to avoid global warming\, individuals often face a social dilemma in 
 which\, besides securing future benefits\, it is also necessary to reduce 
 the chances of future losses. In this talk\, I will resort to game theory 
 and populations of adaptive agents to offer a theoretical analysis of this
  type of dilemmas\, in which the risk of failure plays a central role in i
 ndividual decisions. I will discuss both deterministic dynamics in large p
 opulations\, and stochastic social learning dynamics in finite populations
 . This class of models can be shown to capture some of the essential featu
 res discovered in recent key experiments while allowing one to extend in n
 on-trivial ways the experimental conditions to regions of practical intere
 st. Moreover\, this approach leads us to identify useful parallels between
  ecological and socio-economic systems\, particularly in what concerns the
  evolution and self-organization of their institutions. Particularly\, our
  results suggest that global coordination for a common good should be atte
 mpted through a polycentric structure of multiple small-scale agreements\,
  in which perception of risk is high and uncertainty in collective goals i
 s minimized. Whenever the perception of risk is low\, our results indicate
  that sanctioning institutions may significantly enhance the chances of co
 ordinating to tame the planet's climate\, as long as they are implemented 
 in a bottom-up manner.  I will discuss the impact on public goods dilemmas
  of heterogeneous political networks and wealth inequality\, including dis
 tribution of wealth representative of existing inequalities among nations.
  Finally\, I will briefly discuss the impact of scientific uncertainty —
  both in what concerns the collective targets and the time window availabl
 e for action — on individuals' strategies and polarization of preference
 s.\n
LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/MPML/10/
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