BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Gugan Thoppe (Indian Institute of Science\, Bangalore) DTSTART:20210503T090000Z DTEND:20210503T094500Z DTSTAMP:20260421T173626Z UID:BPS/33 DESCRIPTION:Title: Act ive Cases and Disease Extinction in the Stochastic SIR Model: Estimates wi th Probabilistic Guarantees\nby Gugan Thoppe (Indian Institute of Scie nce\, Bangalore) as part of Bangalore Probability Seminar\n\n\nAbstract\nS IR models\, both deterministic and stochastic\, provide a viable setup for studying epidemics. While the deterministic ones have been around for alm ost a century now\, it hasn't still been possible to obtain analytical est imates for active infections in these setups. Also\, these are not well-su ited to answer questions relating to early termination. The stochastic var iants\, on the other hand\, have indeed been amenable to such analyses. Ho wever\, the current approaches are too complex\; they involve using differ ent approximations (by branching processes\, ODEs\, etc.) for different pa rts of the process.\n\nIn this work\, we consider a discrete-time stochast ic SIR model and take a fundamentally different route to overcome the know n challenges in analyzing SIR models. Namely\, our proofs rely on a sequen ce of stopping times based on jumps in the susceptible population. Their m ain advantage is that the number of recoveries between two successive stop ping times is then a truncated geometric random variable. Our main results include probabilistic bounds for the number of active infections and the disease extinction time. We also obtain an estimate for the expected val ue of the largest epidemic size. This bound matches its analogue in the deterministic case asymptotically. \n\nThis is ongoing work with Dr. Gal Dalal (nVidia\, Israel) and Dr. Balazs Szorenyi (Yahoo Research\, USA).\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BPS/33/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR