BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Mitch Bushuk (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) DTSTART:20201021T130000Z DTEND:20201021T140000Z DTSTAMP:20260423T021405Z UID:BAS-PO/4 DESCRIPTION:Title: S easonal prediction and predictability of regional Antarctic sea ice\nb y Mitch Bushuk (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) as part of BAS Pola r Oceans Seminar\n\n\nAbstract\nCompared to the Arctic\, seasonal predicti ons of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In thi s talk\, I will use three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed a t the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to assess the seasonal predict ion skill and predictability of Antarctic sea ice. These systems\, based o n the FLOR\, SPEAR-lo\, and SPEAR-med dynamical models\, differ in their c oupled model components\, initialization techniques\, atmospheric resoluti on\, and model biases. This allows for an investigation of these factors i n determining Antarctic sea ice prediction skill. Using suites of retrospe ctive initialized seasonal predictions spanning 1992-2018\, we find that e ach system is capable of skillfully predicting regional Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) with skill that generically exceeds that of a persistence for ecast. Winter SIE is skillfully predicted up to 11 months in advance in th e Weddell\, Amundsen and Bellingshausen\, Indian\, and West Pacific sector s\, whereas winter skill is notably lower in the Ross sector. Zonally adve cted upper ocean heat content anomalies are found to provide the crucial s ource of prediction skill for the winter sea ice edge position. The SPEAR systems are notably more skillful than FLOR for summer sea ice predictions \, owing to improvements in sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness in itialization. Summer Weddell SIE can be skillfully predicted up to 8 month s in advance in SPEAR-med\, due to the persistence and drift of initialize d sea ice thickness anomalies from the previous winter. Overall\, these re sults suggest a promising potential for providing operational regional Ant arctic sea ice predictions on seasonal timescales.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BAS-PO/4/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR