BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:researchseminars.org CALSCALE:GREGORIAN X-WR-CALNAME:researchseminars.org BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Yoh Iwasa (Kwansei Gakuin University) DTSTART:20210125T201000Z DTEND:20210125T205500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/1 DESCRIPTION:Title: Persistence of corruption: an evolutionary game theory motivated by i llegal logging in tropics\nby Yoh Iwasa (Kwansei Gakuin University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAb stract\nIllegal logging is a serious threat to plantations in the tropics. Here\, we study the coupled dynamics of Social-Ecological systems sheddin g light of two different aspects.\n[1] We examined the roles of profit-sha ring in plantation management strategy in a dynamic game model. The model assumes that the owner chooses the age of the trees to be harvested and th e local people choose their level of monitoring effort to prevent illegal logging with surveillance. After the trees are removed\, the owner hires l ocal people to replant young trees. Dynamic optimization analysis revealed that\, under the pressure of illegal logging\, the owner may find it prof itable to share harvesting profits with the local people to enhance their surveillance effort. The profit-sharing rate optimal to the owner depends on the rate of natural disturbance\, faster future discount rate\, and a h igher cost of replanting.\n[2] Cooperation can be sustained by institution s that punish free-riders. Such institutions\, however\, tend to be subver ted by corruption if they are not closely watched. Monitoring can uphold t he enforcement of binding agreements ensuring cooperation\, but this usual ly comes at a price. The temptation to skip monitoring and take the instit ution’s integrity for granted leads to outbreaks of corruption and the b reakdown of cooperation. We model the corresponding mechanism by means of evolutionary game theory\, using analytical methods and numerical simulati ons\, and find that it leads to sustained or damped oscillations. The resu lts confirm the view that corruption is endemic and transparency a major f actor in reducing it.\nLee\, J-H.\, Y. Kubo\, T. Fujiwara\, R.M. Septianad \, S. Riyantod\, and Y. Iwasa. 2018. Profit sharing as a management strate gy for a state-owned teak plantation at high risk for illegal logging. Eco logical Economics 149\, 140-148.\nLee\, J-H\, Y. Iwasa\, U. Dieckmann\, an d K. Sigmund. 2019 Social evolution leads to persistent corruption. PNAS 1 16\, 13276-13281.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/1/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Christopher Heggerud (University of Alberta) DTSTART:20210125T210000Z DTEND:20210125T213000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/2 DESCRIPTION:Title: Christopher Heggerud: Coupling the socio-economic and ecological dyna mics of cyanobacteria\nby Christopher Heggerud (University of Alberta) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\ nAbstract\nCyanobacterial (CB) blooms are becoming a global concern due to the increasing prevalence of eutrophication. The dependence of CB dynamic s on phosphorus and light inputs is modeled via a stoichiometric approach and the transient dynamics are discussed. We then couple the CB model to a socio-economic model governing the anthropogenic nutrient inputs. We assu me that the human population is made up of cooperators and defectors and t hat each strategy has an associated cost dependent on social pressure and norms\, concern for CB\, and effort. We find that the human population at a single lake exhibits bistability. Further\, in considering a network of lakes the level of cooperation is highly dependent on social norms.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/2/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Eli Fenichel (Yale University) DTSTART:20210125T220000Z DTEND:20210125T224500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/3 DESCRIPTION:Title: Eli Fenichel: Getting human behavior into epidemiology models\nby Eli Fenichel (Yale University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of H uman Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nInfectious disease modeling effo rts are emblematic of the challenges of modeling coupled human-environment al systems. These challenges exist conceptually\, theoretically\, and empi rically\, and are made more challenging by disciplinary norms. COVID-19 ha s pumped substantial amounts of energy into interdisciplinary and multidis ciplinary approaches to epidemiological modeling. However\, I see many of the over-simplifications\, related to challenges we have struggled with fo r over 10 years\, finding their way into high profile reports and publicat ions that are guiding policy response. The challenges start with implicit disciplinary disagreement about what is being modeled and why. They are fu rther complicated by scaling issues\, which are tightly connected to disci plinary views of model assessment that point back to the reasons for model ing. In this talk\, I will describe my lessons learned and outline a resea rch program for couple human-epidemiological modeling going forward with t he goal of providing insights for other human-environmental modeling and f or public health.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/3/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Rebecca Tyson (University of British Columbia - Okanagan) DTSTART:20210125T225000Z DTEND:20210125T232000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/4 DESCRIPTION:Title: Rebecca Tyson: CHANS with Opinion Dynamics\nby Rebecca Tyson (Uni versity of British Columbia - Okanagan) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathemat ics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nCHANS models frequently incorporate the human component using a game theoretic framework. In this work\, we present a different approach where opinion dynamics are modeled explicitly\, giving us access to social behaviours such as amplification a nd polarization. We study the behaviour of the opinion dynamics in isolati on\, and then couple them to disease dynamics to study the interaction\nbe tween the two. We propose that our approach allows for the inclusion of hu man behaviours that are difficult to access via traditional CHANS modellin g\, and that might have important consequences for the management of ecolo gical systems.\nCo-Authors: Noah Marshall\, Stephen M. Krone\, Bert O. Bau mgaertner\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/4/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Frank Hilker (Osnabrück University) DTSTART:20210126T200000Z DTEND:20210126T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/6 DESCRIPTION:Title: Comparison between best-response dynamics and replicator dynamics in a social-ecological model of lake eutrophication\nby Frank Hilker (Osn abrück University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environ mental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nHuman behavior can be modeled by describing\ , on a collective level\, the adoption of certain strategies by individual agents. Many models use either the replicator dynamics (RD) or the logit formulation of the best-response (BR). How do RD and BR differ\, and does the distinction matter? This talk gives a brief overview of the two behavi oral models\, both of which originate from evolutionary game theory. Their differences are illustrated in the context of a social-ecological model f or eutrophication in shallow lakes\, where the anthropogenic discharge of pollutants into the water is determined by RD or BR. It will be shown that the replicator equation is a limit case of the best-response model\, when agents are assumed to behave with infinite rationality. If agents act les s rationally in BR\, the correspondence with RD decreases\; the two model versions can differ substantially regarding the number of possible equilib ria\, the potential for multistability\, and the type of sustained oscilla tions. Consequently\, the choice of the behavioral model may profoundly af fect the overall dynamics of a coupled human-environment system and deserv es careful consideration. Joint work with Anthony Sun\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/6/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Mayuko Nakamaru (Tokyo Institute of Technology) DTSTART:20210126T205000Z DTEND:20210126T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/7 DESCRIPTION:Title: Ecological features benefiting sustainable harvesters in socio-ecolog ical systems: A case study of swiftlets in Malaysia\nby Mayuko Nakamar u (Tokyo Institute of Technology) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nIf sustainable harvesters coul d benefit more than the unsustainable ones\, even in the short term\, the overharvesting problem in ecosystem would be solved. However\, it is not a n easy task. There is a special case: swiftlets in Sarawak\, Malaysia\, wh ere sustainable harvesters are believed to obtain a more return than unsus tainable harvesters in the short term. Edible nests built by adult swiftle ts are used as ingredients for a Chinese traditional soup. There is a loca l knowledge that\, once unsustainable harvesters harvest the nests on the cave ceilings\, swiftlets escape from the cave and never come back to the same place. This ecological behavior works as the swiftlet's indirect puni shment against unsustainable harvesters. We make a stage-structured popula tion model and examines the effect of property rights and the indirect pun ishment by swiftlets on the population dynamics of the swiftlets\, and on the short-term return of both sustainable and unsustainable harvesters. Fo llowing are our findings: both the indirect punishment by swiftlets and th e property rights system are required to provide sustainable harvesters wi th a higher short-term return than unsustainable harvesters. We would like to discuss the possibility to apply this model to other ecosystem managem ents.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/7/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Akiko Satake (Kyushu University) DTSTART:20210126T220500Z DTEND:20210126T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/8 DESCRIPTION:Title: Coupled social and ecological systems in forested landscape\nby A kiko Satake (Kyushu University) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of H uman Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nLandscape change is the outcome of both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Natural disturbances (e.g. \, forest fires\, land slides\, and floods) are episodic and stochastic ev ents that occur across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Anthro pogenic disturbances (e.g.\, forest clearance for agriculture\, timber har vest\, or pasture) also occur at various temporal and spatial scales\, but often at a faster rate and a more extensive scale than natural disturbanc es. Deforestation is especially an important environmental problem because of its impact on biodiversity\, carbon cycling associated with global cli mate\, biogeochemical cycling\, and other ecosystem functions. A key facto r inducing landscape change is the human behavior that underlies these cha nges. The simplest way to consider this is to develop a model which traces the responses of landowners to the change of socioeconomic and ecological conditions. We introduce a Markov chain model for land-use dynamics in a forested landscape [1─4]. The model emphasizes the importance of couplin g socioeconomic and ecological processes underlying landscape changes. \n\ nReferences\n[1] Satake A\, Iwasa Y (2006) Coupled ecological and social d ynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of the individual decisions from the social optimum. Ecological Research 21\, 370–379.\n[2] Satake A\, Rudel TK (2007) Modelling the forest transition: forest scarcity and e cosystem service hypotheses. \nEcological Applications 17\, 2024–2036.\n [3] Satake A\, Janssen MA\, Levin SA\, Iwasa Y (2007) Collective deforesta tion induced by social learning under uncertainty of forest-use value. \nE cological Economics 63\, 452–462.\n[4] Satake A\, Rudel TK\, Onuma A (20 08) Scale mismatches and their ecological and economic effects on landscap es: a spatially explicit model. \nGlobal Environmental Change 18\, 768–7 75.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/8/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Alan Hastings (University of California - Davis) DTSTART:20210127T200000Z DTEND:20210127T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/10 DESCRIPTION:Title: Role of Transients in Human Environmental Systems\nby Alan Hasti ngs (University of California - Davis) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathemati cs of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nI will show how understan ding transient behavior is important in the management of ecological syste ms and discuss recent results that provide a general framework for underst anding transient dynamics. The simplest transients arise in linear system s\, where the cessation of fishing after implementation of a marine reserv e provides an example which is both illustrative and important. I will di scuss how dynamics after or near a ‘tipping point’ are another key exa mple. More generally\, I will show how human-environmental systems are ty pically a mix of different time scales which makes transients likely. I w ill emphasize how the need to understand dynamics on different time scales makes an understanding of transients essential\, and illustrate this and other aspects with examples.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/10/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Chris Bauch (University of Waterloo) DTSTART:20210127T205000Z DTEND:20210127T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/11 DESCRIPTION:Title: Early warning signals of critical transitions in coupled human-envir onment systems: leveraging data science with dynamical systems\nby Chr is Bauch (University of Waterloo) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nModelling coupled human-enviro nment systems is becoming an increasingly urgent research priority. Coupli ng human dynamics to environmental dynamics in mathematical models introdu ces higher dimensionality and thus novel dynamics. This creates both chal lenges and opportunities for predicting critical transitions with early wa rning signals based on effects like critical slowing down. In this talk\, I will summarize work that shows how feedback from human systems can muff le early warning signals of collapse in an environmental system\; how feed back can ‘doom’ a human-environment system to self-evolved criticality \; how timescale differences mean that early warning signals of human-envi ronment collapse can be more apparent in the human system than the environ ment system\; and how machine learning algorithms\, in concert with dynami cal systems insights\, can be used to enhance our ability to provide early warning of such transitions.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/11/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Andrew Tilman (University of Pennsylvania) DTSTART:20210127T220500Z DTEND:20210127T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/12 DESCRIPTION:Title: Environmental forecasting and human-environmental dynamics\nby A ndrew Tilman (University of Pennsylvania) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathem atics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nEco-evolutionary game theory provides a framework for the analysis of human-environmental dynami cs. In an eco-evolutionary game\, strategies of individuals impact the env ironment and the state of the environment alters the payoff structure that individuals face\, generating feedback. This feedback can lead to persist ent cyclical environmental overshoot. In the model of eco-evolutionary gam es that I will present\, we examine the impact of environmental forecastin g on cyclic human-environmental dynamics. We find that if individuals make forecasts of the environment and integrate these forecasts into their str ategy updating process\, environmental stability can be achieved. Next\, I will share a model of competition between forecasting and non-forecasting types in a human-environmental system to explore whether forecasting type s can invade and generate environmental stability. \nCoauthors: Vitor Vasc oncelos\, Erol Akcay\, Joshua Plotkin\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/12/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Nina Fefferman (University of Tennessee) DTSTART:20210128T200000Z DTEND:20210128T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/14 DESCRIPTION:Title: Humans as Ecosystem Engineers of the Pathogen Landscape\nby Nina Fefferman (University of Tennessee) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nHumans shape nearly every a spect of our environment\, from purposeful elimination of rural predators to the altered soil chemistry of urban settings. These changes have both d irect and indirect effects on the evolution and ecology of pathogens. In t his talk\, we will touch briefly on the obvious\, direct efforts to contro l pathogen systems (e.g.\, antibiotics use) and then spend the majority of time discussing indirect impacts of modern human systems that can profoun dly impact the evolution and ecology of pathogens. We will discuss a few t oy models that highlight these effects and discuss a potential framework f or understanding the cascading impacts and bidirectional feedbacks between humans and the pathogen landscape in which we live.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/14/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Junling Ma (University of Victoria) DTSTART:20210128T205000Z DTEND:20210128T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/15 DESCRIPTION:Title: Time of infections of SI epidemics on networks of cities\, farms\, o r individual\nby Junling Ma (University of Victoria) as part of BIRS w orkshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nA novel probabilistic approach is presented for obtaining the probability distrib u- tion of infection time for SI disease epidemics on a finite network spe cified as a fixed weighted digraph. Individuals (network nodes) are classi fied as either susceptible or infectious\, with transmission rates along w eighted network arcs. The model is ap- propriate for diseases with no reco very\, or for the initial outbreak of diseases with recovery. Our method t o analyze the model yields the exact probability distribution for the time at which a given individual in the network becomes infected. This can als o be used to compute the probability that any given individual is infected as well as the expected number of infectious individuals at any time. Exa mples of simple networks illustrate the utility of the method. Nodes can a lso be identified more generally\, such as farms or cities\, and the metho d can be applied to biological networks with estimated transmission rates on the network arcs.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/15/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:David Finnoff (University of Wyoming) DTSTART:20210128T220500Z DTEND:20210128T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/16 DESCRIPTION:Title: Human behavior in economic-epidemiological systems\nby David Fin noff (University of Wyoming) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Huma n Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nWe investigate the dynamics of epid emiological bifurcations in systems where individuals optimally alter beha vior in the face of endogenous disease risk. The bifurcations can lead to aggregate instability\, which introduces the potential for less predictabl e outcomes from public health policies and welfare losses. For instance\, health policies designed to lower the transmission probability or policies designed to raise the quality-of-life following infection generate endoge nous human responses that may push endemic equilibria from being stable to exhibiting instability or indeterminacy with the possibility of unintende d consequences from public health policy.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/16/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Madhur Anand (University of Guelph) DTSTART:20210129T200000Z DTEND:20210129T204500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/18 DESCRIPTION:Title: What can we learn from mathematical models of ourselves? Examples fr om forest pest spread to climate change mitigation.\nby Madhur Anand ( University of Guelph) as part of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Envir onmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nIt is becoming increasingly clear that hum ans and ecosystems form a single\, coupled human-environment system (HES) where humans not only cause negative ecosystem impacts\, but also react to them. Humans have highly diverse identities and complex social structures that affect our decision-making. We also have the ability to modify our e nvironments (and those of other organisms) in ways fundamentally different from what other organisms do. This can lead to shifts in norms in how hum ans use\, abuse and/or protect ecological systems and in turn feedback on human behaviour. Despite this\, there are still far fewer examples of cou pled mathematical models of human and ecological systems than mathematical models of ecological systems themselves. We will present recent case stu dies in human-environment systems from our own work in forest pest and cli mate change mitigation. I discuss the challenges of this kind of research and suggest areas and pathways through which mathematical models of human- environment sustainability could be enhanced in future research.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/18/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Louis Gross (University of Tennessee\, Knoxville) DTSTART:20210129T205000Z DTEND:20210129T213500Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/19 DESCRIPTION:Title: A Rational Basis for Hope: Human Behavior Modeling and Climate Chang e\nby Louis Gross (University of Tennessee\, Knoxville) as part of BIR S workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbstract\nWhil e climate models have rapidly advanced in sophistication over recent decad es\, they lack dynamic representation of human behavior and social systems despite strong feedbacks between social processes and climate. The impact s of climate change alter perceptions of risk and emissions behavior that\ , in turn\, influence the rate and magnitude of climate change. Addressing this deficiency in climate models requires a substantial interdisciplinar y effort to couple models of climate and\nhuman behavior. I will discuss e fforts by a group of highly-interdisciplinary collaborators to create link ed models of human behavior\, risk perception and global climate. Our resu lts indicate that\ninclusion of human behavioral change arising from the p erception and experience of extreme events could have large impacts on tem perature trajectories. Furthermore\, uncertainties in global temperature t rajectories arising from impacts of human behavior are similar in magnitud e to those arising from uncertainties of the physical components of climat e models.\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/19/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Hans Kaper (Georgetown University) DTSTART:20210129T220500Z DTEND:20210129T225000Z DTSTAMP:20260422T185106Z UID:BIRS_21w5191/20 DESCRIPTION:Title: Modeling Food System\nby Hans Kaper (Georgetown University) as p art of BIRS workshop: Mathematics of Human Environmental Systems\n\n\nAbst ract\nThe agricultural establishment has made significant progress in its efforts to improve agricultural productivity and efficiency. Yet\, with ab out one billion people hungry\, two billion people with insufficient nutri ents\, and over two billion people already overweight or obese\, undernutr ition and malnutrition are affecting more than half the world's population . Clearly\, when enough food is produced but sizable fractions of the popu lation suffer from malnutrition or are overweight\, we need to get a bette r understanding of the global food system. In this talk\, I will describe some recent efforts at modeling food systems and highlight research issue s for MPE. \n(Joint work with Hans Engler\, Georgetown University)\n LOCATION:https://researchseminars.org/talk/BIRS_21w5191/20/ END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR